Forecasting and Predictions

While it is tempting to think of forecasting in terms of 'predicting outcomes', such an interpretation assumes a causal logic, failing to acknowledge the effectuation processes often at work in sustainability-focused innovative and entrepreneurial activity(Coffay et al.,2022). The entrepreneurial activity is nothing but predicting the right enablers for the future that users will adopt. Predictions have a very close tie to forecasting. Predictions fuel innovations; however, they become known to humanity only if they are adequately forecasted and their usage is assessed correctly. Many of us know Nikola Tesla as the inventor of Alternating Current. How many of us know that he holds over 300 patents? How many of us know in depth about all his innovations? This classification of what is still in discussion vs. what is forgotten is the power of forecasting. 

Predictions were always there from time immemorial. If we go back, they have even titled prophets, called people with powers, etc. However, none of them have passed the test of time and are celebrated today as innovators that forecasted the need correctly and predicted opportunities that changed the world. 

"When wireless is perfectly applied, the whole earth will be converted into a huge brain, all being particles of a real and rhythmic whole." For almost a century, electrical engineers have been endeavoring to approach what Nikola Tesla predicted in 1926 for a "World Wireless System" (Hui, 2021).

Think about that! In a period where alternating current was known only to the elite classes, Tesla predicted how the world would be shaped around the power of connectivity. The predictions made by such an inventor would have always been thoroughly thought through. Many forces could play a crucial role in these predictions. Let us dive deep into some vital forces that enabled Nikola Tesla to predict mobile phones and WIFI decades before they became a reality.

Advancement of Technology: Innovations are always enabled by technological advancements; from a circular pole to a drivable vehicle, the transformation was made possible only with the advancement in technology. Moreover, this advancement enables innovators to think of the next big impossible. Forecasting the need for innovation and predicting the factors that would make the innovation successful is also tied to the possibility of expanding the current technology innovator. From the time people struggled to transfer direct current, Nikola Tesla invented alternating current, which was easy to transfer using conducting materials. This innovation was triggered by forecasting the need to expand what is already available. Thus, technological advancement will continue to help and innovate new things for many generations. 

Economic Indicators: Economic feasibility is another critical force that enables innovators to think and predict future needs. No one seriously thought about space travel till it was made available for purchase and mass transportation. Similarly, forecasting the need for innovation revolves around the economic aspects of manufacturing, usage, and maintenance. Hence all these thoughts must go in while working on a successful innovation.

References 

Coffay, M., Coenen, L., & Tveterås, R. (2022). Effectuated sustainability: Responsible Innovation Labs for impact forecasting and assessment. Journal of Cleaner Production, 376, 134324.

Hui, X. (2021). Harmonic RF Sensing: From Indoor Localization to Vital-Sign Monitoring (Order No. 28490518). Available from ProQuest One Academic. (2661409541). https://coloradotech.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/dissertations-theses/harmonic-rf-sensing-indoor-localization-vital/docview/2661409541/se-2